Biden, Trump Battle Over Haley Voters—But Who Are They?

Earlier than the lights dimmed on Nikki Haley’s farewell speech to supporters, the 2 presumptive major-party nominees started to courtroom her supporters.

As Ms. Haley was about to formally announce her exit from the presidential race, President Trump wrote on social media that he would “like to ask all the Haley supporters to affix the best motion within the historical past of our Nation.”

President Joe Biden additionally opened the door.

“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t need Nikki Haley supporters,” President Biden mentioned in an announcement, referring to a remark by President Trump that donors who saved giving to the Haley marketing campaign can be completely barred from the MAGA motion.

“I wish to be clear: There’s a place for them in my marketing campaign,” President Biden wrote.

Media retailers have usually reported on Ms. Haley’s energy within the suburbs, amongst unbiased voters, and amongst voters with a school diploma or larger. These studies suggest that Ms. Haley has a large maintain on undecided voters or these uncommitted to both President Biden or Trump.

Nevertheless, is that the case? What number of of her main voters would have finally voted for President Joe Biden within the basic election anyway? And what number of of these self-identified independents are nonetheless undecided?

The Epoch Occasions has combed by way of the Edison Analysis exit ballot knowledge in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, California, and Virginia. The exit knowledge was commissioned by a consortium of media retailers, which used it to check President Trump and Ms. Haley and showcase her strengths.

Nevertheless, a special image emerges when the main focus is on Ms. Haley’s voters alone.

Demographics

Ms. Haley has a a lot larger share of independents and Democrats amongst her supporters, based mostly on exit polls within the 5 states talked about above.

In comparison with the general Republican main voter make-up, Ms. Haley’s voters are likely to comprise a bigger share of self-identified independents and Democrats, per the varieties of main contests within the numerous states.

New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Virginia main races had been open; voters registered to any get together may vote for any single candidate. North Carolina’s main race was partially closed; solely unaffiliated voters and registered Republicans may take part within the Republican contest. The California Republican main race was closed to solely permit registered Republican voters.

Within the New Hampshire and Virginia open primaries, Ms. Haley attracted six and 14 % extra Democrats amongst her supporters, respectively, than the general degree of all Republican main voters. Each states voted for Biden in 2020. In California, 31 % of Ms. Haley’s Republican voters self-identified as unbiased, which was on par with the general degree.

Nevertheless, President Trump has an equal, if not stronger, maintain on suburban voters.

Within the 5 main states—New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, North Carolina, and Virginia, President Trump had the identical share of suburban voters as Ms. Haley in 4 states and a a lot larger share in North Carolina.

Ms. Haley edged forward in city areas, suggesting Ms. Haley’s energy within the suburbs solely exists in closely Democratic-leaning areas, similar to northern Virginia’s Fairfax County.

In northern Virginia, she failed to hold the neighboring Loudoun County, which normally votes in sync with Fairfax County typically elections however has extra independents.

President Biden carried Loudoun and Fairfax Counties by a 25 % and 40 % margin, respectively, within the 2020 basic election.

In North Carolina, President Trump beat Ms. Haley in each county. His successful margins had been narrower in three deep-blue counties within the Charlotte and Raleigh metropolitan areas.

Within the closed California Republican main, President Trump defeated Ms. Haley by a 61-point margin, carried evenly throughout counties.

Ms. Haley’s excessive share of self-identified non-Republican voters and her energy in deep blue suburbs begs the query: What number of self-identified independents are Democrats?

Fifty-two % of Haley main voters voted for President Biden within the 2020 basic election, in line with the survey.

Gary Moses, a Douglas County, Colorado resident, voted within the Democratic main for President Biden on Tremendous Tuesday, the day earlier than Ms. Haley withdrew her presidential bid.

“I sit up for her persevering with and sending a message about Donald Trump as a result of we couldn’t have any higher particular person on the market serving to the Democrats,” Mr. Moses advised The Epoch Occasions.

“This can be a closed poll right here in Colorado, however I might have crossed over and voted for her,” he mentioned.

He lamented that the Republican Social gathering not had “McCains on the market” earlier than including that he hadn’t voted for the late senator in his run in opposition to Barack Obama in 2008.

Within the Republican camp, some voters don’t consider Ms. Haley may beat President Biden within the basic election regardless of some ballot outcomes giving her an even bigger probability than President Trump.

Donald Fraser, a 71-year-old retired naval officer in northern Virginia’s Loudoun County, voted for President Trump on Tremendous Tuesday.

“John McCain didn’t defeat Obama. Mitt Romney didn’t defeat Obama. Nikki Haley, in my thoughts, is simply one other John McCain, one other Mitt Romney,” Mr. Fraser advised The Epoch Occasions.

“So, she will say all she desires, however what’s occurred earlier than would occur once more together with her.”

Economic system and Household Funds

Ms. Haley’s voters additionally appear to be faring effectively with the present financial system, in line with their views of the nation’s financial system and household funds.

About half of the Haley voters in New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia thought of the financial system “good.” One-third mentioned the identical in South Carolina. California, was the outlier, with not a single ballot respondent score the financial system as “good.”

Haley voters respect her as “level-headed,” “sensible,” and “an excellent different.”

Capitalizing on this benefit, Ms. Haley usually criticized President Trump for his fashion and character.

“All he’s doing is speaking about himself. And that’s the issue. It’s not about him; it’s concerning the American individuals,” she mentioned at a rally on March 1, to viewers applause.

James Smith of Charleston, who voted early for Ms. Haley within the South Carolina main, advised The Epoch Occasions on March 6, “Character counts. Character is crucial factor in management. And he or she has it. She’s had powerful instances and sort of confirmed herself. And I don’t assume Mr. Trump or President Biden has the character to guide effectively.”

Crucial high quality to Haley voters in Virginia was “has the proper temperament,” as famous by Rex Shipley of northern Virginia.

On Tremendous Tuesday, he advised The Epoch Occasions that Ms. Haley and President Trump have related insurance policies however completely different approaches and kinds. “I’m not one which believes the president ought to skirt the legislation in any kind,” he mentioned, referring to President Trump’s authorized battles.

In search of an Various

Many Haley voters don’t need President Biden or Trump. Haley voters that The Epoch Occasions spoke to had diverse responses, however one frequent component: they don’t like President Biden, however they like President Trump much less.

This sentiment was shared by Haley supporters Kurt Kehlenbeck, 64, and Diane Derusha, 75. Each dwell in South Carolina.

“I don’t need both previous man within the White Home,” Ms. Derusha mentioned of President Trump and President Biden.

Mr. Kehlenbeck is a Democrat who voted for Ms. Haley within the main and would vote for her within the basic election, if she received the nomination. In any other case, he’ll vote for Biden.

Ms. Derusha is a Republican who refuses to vote for President Trump.

Gracita Novak, a registered Republican from Montgomery County, Maryland, drove to Washington on March 1 to attend Ms. Haley’s rally. The Republican main in her state is scheduled for Might 14.

She mentioned her cause for supporting Ms. Haley is “quite simple: as a result of she’s acquired an excellent head on her shoulders.”

“We want a more sensible choice. It’s unhappy that in each events, we actually don’t have a complete lot of alternative, and we want individuals with a degree head, sensible, and may see by way of, and have the ability to give an olive department and to have the ability to work issues out,” Ms. Novak advised The Epoch Occasions. “And it’s unhappy politics are not that approach.

“I actually assume that this nation was prepared and open to [a] third get together [candidate]. I feel she [Haley] may go for it.”

Ms. Haley has been noncommittal about making a third-party bid. She additionally declined to endorse President Trump, saying he must earn the votes of her supporters.

“It’s now as much as Donald Trump to earn the votes of these in our get together and past it who didn’t assist him, and I hope he does that. At its greatest, politics is about bringing individuals into your trigger, not turning them away. And our conservative trigger badly wants extra individuals. That is now his time for selecting.”

Nathan Worcester contributed to this text.