If not Ursula, then who? Seven in the wings for Commission top job
The Fee chief submit will probably be put up for grabs after the EU elections. Who could be the opposite choices to Ursula von der Leyen?
A re-appointment of Ursula von der Leyen on the helm of the EU government appeared a matter after all, however her management of the EU government has misplaced its lustre within the wake of the withdrawal from workplace of her decide for SME envoy, Markus Pieper, and following some wobbles over her response to the disaster within the Center East.
The chance that she mightn’t now get the nod of each EU leaders and incoming MEPs this summer season has grow to be a extra lifelike prospect.
Her foremost promoting level has at all times been continuity with the present Fee, but additionally the dearth of precise rivals for her submit.
Different names at the moment are doing the rounds, nevertheless – a minimum of in Brussels – though different candidates received’t formally throw their hat within the ring earlier than the elections.
Mario Draghi, the Wizard
Draghi’s speech (16 April) on the high-level social discussion board in La Hulpe was hailed by the Italian press as a thinly disguised candidacy for the highest job. Even in Brussels, the previous Italian prime minister enjoys a status for making issues occur, as if by magic.
The secrets and techniques of his witchcraft stay elusive, nevertheless – his spell within the face of the euro-area debt disaster was “no matter it takes”. He seems to be creating a brand new incantation in reference to the report on competitiveness he’s getting ready, commissioned by von der Leyen herself, referring to the necessity for “a radical change”.
Professionals: In all probability essentially the most recognized European politician with an aura of infallibility, additionally perceived to be above the fray of social gathering politics.
Cons: The danger of getting somebody who’s “too good” within the prime job, overshadowing everybody else – one purpose that led Italian events to drag the plug on his premiership.
Odds: EU leaders and MEPs unlikely to reject Draghi, even Viktor Orban has instructed reporters in Brussels he “likes” him.
Kristalina Georgieva, the Evergreen
Outgoing European Council President Charles Michel – who will probably be a key dealer in negotiations for the subsequent EU prime jobs – mentioned forward of the particular April EU summit that the subsequent Fee will probably be an ‘financial’ one.
If that is true, who higher than the present Worldwide Financial Fund director, Kristalina Georgieva, for the highest job?
The title of the previous EU price range Commissioner is an evergreen when EU key posts are mentioned – and was already circulated in 2019 when von der Leyen was in the end appointed.
Professionals: She may very well be Jap Europe’s long-awaited first Fee chief for the reason that ‘Nice Enlargement’.
Cons: She has simply been reappointed as IMF Director and in comparison with different candidates, has fewer connections to the important thing decision-makers in Brussels.
Odds: Robust with the Council for her assist of Jap international locations, stable to shaky within the Parliament.
Andrej Plenković, the Outsider
If its official Spitzenkandidat von der Leyen ought to fall, the centre-right European Folks’s Social gathering (EPP) has different strings to its bow – together with Plenković.
The Croatian prime minister has led the federal government since 2016 and could be tempted to pursue a extra worldwide profession, notably if his social gathering is defeated within the nationwide elections scheduled for this week.
Professionals: Longstanding expertise as head of presidency, emanates from EU’s latest member state – a goodwill sign to candidate international locations on the ready record.
Cons: Extra ‘political’ than ‘coverage’ oriented profile.
Odds: Friendship with many fellow EU leaders may make it simple to be appointed however affirmation would depend on coalition-building capability in Parliament.
Roberta Metsola, the Apprentice
When Time journal included Metsola amongst 100 rising leaders shaping the world in 2023, von der Leyen herself penned the accompanying encomium.
“Don’t ever give in to cynicism. You may be the engine of change,” the present Fee chief suggested the youthful politician who may now succeed her mentor.
In her quick worldwide profession, Metsola has burnished her EPP credentials, changing into the primary EU politician to satisfy Zelenskyy in Kyiv following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
She’s no frontrunner nevertheless: her title would doubtless emerge if there was no settlement on reappointing von der Leyen and likelier candidates fell away.
Professionals: Charisma and youth, plus sturdy pro-European credentials.
Cons: Lack of worldwide expertise, no earlier jobs in any authorities – an issue for EU leaders.
Odds: Simpler within the Parliament as outgoing president, tougher within the European Council.
Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Ace
Greece’s prime minister may show one other ace within the gap for the EPP if issues get robust across the negotiating desk. In a current tweet, EPP social gathering chief Manfred Weber mentioned that Mitsotakis “represents EPP management at its greatest” – phrases he’d unlikely supply von der Leyen.
Mitsotakis is popular with fellow EU leaders and may be decide for chairing the European Council if the EPP fails to take the Fee submit.
On the current Euronews ON AIR occasion, the Greek chief highlighted three foremost drives for the subsequent EU time period: strategic autonomy, competitiveness, and meals safety – sounding ready for a State of the Union speech.
Professionals: Earlier expertise as EU chief. He speaks good English and French, and sufficient German to deal with the plenary within the annual State of the Union handle.
Cons: The whiff of home scandal may make him a dangerous selection.
Odds: Robust with the Council, counting on the political majority within the Parliament as EPP candidate.
Christine Lagarde, the Banker
The present European Central Financial institution (ECB) governor could be one other stable decide if Michel’s prophecy about an ‘financial’ Fee seems to be proper – notably if negotiations fall into stalemate.
In 2019, she received the helm of the ECB given a push by Emmanuel Macron and may effectively be the French president’s decide as soon as once more.
Professionals: Good document wherever she’s been, from the French authorities to the IMF and the ECB.
Cons: A selection that will look bureaucratic or indifferent from residents, too near Macron (for good or ailing).
Odds: If her title emerges on the leaders’ desk, it is a certain signal they’re working out of concepts and she or he may very well be one of many final good picks obtainable. Might she win the assist of a right-leaning Parliament, nevertheless?
Klaus Iohannis, the Strategist
What if Michel is flawed and Europe opts for an additional ‘geopolitical’ Fee? On this case, the Romanian President’s title may emerge like a rabbit from the hat.
Iohannis can also be working for NATO Secretary Common – though Dutch PM Mark Rutte appears to have the sting in that race – so he has a ready-made imaginative and prescient for Europe’s defence that could be recyclable for the subsequent Fee.
Professionals: Candidate from an Jap nation and the EPP.
Cons: Is determined by the result of the NATO race.
Odds: Comparatively effectively considered within the European Council, however wants an EPP majority within the Parliament.